Daily Pivots: (S1) 101.86; (P) 102.29; (R1) 102.88;
USD/JPY - Apr 18 08 08:25 GMT Daily Outlook, Forex Daily news
USD/JPY retreats mildly after failing to test 102.94 resisetance. Outlook remains unchanged so far. Prior break of 102.25 minor resistance argues that rebound from 95.77 is going to extend further. Nevertheless, as discussed before, decisive break of 103.59 resistance zone is still needed to indicate underlying upside momentum is still strong, otherwise, corrective rebound from 95.77 is still expected to end soon, if not completed and bring resumption of recent down trend. On the downside, below 100.78 will turn intraday bias back to the downside for 98.55 support first. Further break will confirm that rise from 95.77 has completed and will bring USD/JPY retest of this low.
In the bigger picture, as discussed before, USD/JPY has broken out of multi-year triangle consolidation pattern that started in 1998 at 147.68. The decline from 124.13 has met 76.4% retracement of 79.75 to 147.68 at 95.78 so far. Some support is seen at this level. But still, there is no sign of reversal yet. Also, the structure, of the current fall from 124.13 argues that USD/JPY is just in the middle of a larger down trend only.
Medium term outlook remains bearish as long as 103.59 cluster resistance (61.8% retracement of 108.59 to 95.77 at 103.69) holds. Sustained trading below 95.78 will encourage further fall to next important psychological level at 90 first. However, firm break of 103.59 cluster resistance will argue that a medium term bottom is already in place. In such case, stronger medium term rebound should be seen to correct the whole fall from 124.13.